Tariffs: What They Mean for Your Investments
Tariffs are back in the news, sparking debate about their impact on the economy. But as an investor, should you be concerned? More importantly, should you take any action?
Rather than getting caught up in the headlines, let’s take a step back. Tariffs have played a role in U.S. economic policy for centuries, and while they can create market fluctuations, they are just one of many factors influencing your portfolio. The key to smart investing isn’t reacting to every new policy—it’s sticking to a well-structured plan.
A Quick History of Tariffs in America
Tariffs—taxes on imported goods—were once a key pillar of U.S. economic strategy. Dating back to the founding of the nation, leaders like Alexander Hamilton believed tariffs would help protect American businesses and promote industrial growth.
For much of the 19th and early 20th centuries, tariffs helped fund the government and support domestic industries. Presidents like Abraham Lincoln and Theodore Roosevelt saw them as essential to economic expansion and job creation. However, as global trade evolved, the U.S. gradually shifted toward free trade agreements, lowering tariffs to encourage international commerce.
Fast forward to today, and tariffs are making a comeback in policy discussions. Some argue that they help protect American jobs and industries, while others warn that they can lead to higher prices and trade conflicts. The question is: How do tariffs affect your investments?
Tariffs and Your Investments
Tariffs can impact different parts of the market in various ways:
- Higher Costs for Businesses – When companies pay more for imported goods, they sometimes pass those costs onto consumers. This can contribute to inflation, affecting everything from manufacturing to technology.
- Market Volatility – When tariffs are announced or changed, markets may react with uncertainty. Stock prices often fluctuate as businesses adjust to potential cost increases or changes in trade relationships.
- Industry Winners and Losers – Some industries benefit from tariffs, while others struggle.
- Winners: Domestic manufacturers that compete with foreign imports may gain an advantage.
- Losers: Companies that rely on imported raw materials (such as automakers or tech firms) may see rising costs.
- Global Trade Uncertainty – Tariffs can lead to retaliatory measures from other countries, making it more expensive for U.S. businesses to sell products overseas. This can impact multinational corporations and sectors like agriculture and exports.
What Should Investors Do?
The short answer? Nothing.
Your portfolio is already designed to handle unpredictable events—tariffs included. Markets constantly absorb new information, and trying to outguess them based on headlines is a losing game.
Yes, tariffs can impact certain industries, cause short-term market swings, and drive policy debates. But reacting to every economic shift often does more harm than good. Smart investing is about discipline, not making emotional decisions based on short-term news.
That’s exactly why we use a Bucket Strategy—to ensure our clients investments are structured for both short-term stability and long-term growth. Your near-term cash flow needs are already accounted for, meaning market fluctuations (whether caused by tariffs or something else) won’t force you to sell at the wrong time. Meanwhile, your long-term investments are positioned for growth, allowing you to ride out short-term volatility.
The best approach? Stick to your plan. Stay diversified. Ignore the noise. If your portfolio is well-structured, it has already accounted for events like this—no action required.
The Bottom Line
Tariffs have been a part of America’s economic landscape for centuries, and they’re not going away anytime soon. While they may influence markets in the short term, they are just one of many factors that impact long-term investment performance.
Instead of getting caught up in the headlines, focus on what really matters—your long-term financial goals. If you have questions about how trade policy fits into your investment strategy, let’s talk. But rest assured, your plan is built to weather these moments, so you can stay focused on the bigger picture.
Golf Tip of the Week
Rules of Golf Review: What happens if you break two rules before hitting your next shot?
Oh, man. It’s bad enough that you didn’t realize you just dropped closer to the hole after taking relief from a sprinkler head, but then you double-downed by fixing a raised divot on your line of play from the fringe.
As you chip the ball onto the green, someone with a decent understanding of the rules might recognize that you just committed two penalties. But how do you proceed?
Let’s get into this. When you dropped closer to the hole, you violated Rule 14.7 (playing from the wrong place) and should be assessed the general penalty. That means in match play, you’d lose the hole. In stroke play, it’s two shots added to your scorecard.
OK, so if you’re playing a match, you’re done. Doesn’t matter what you did next. You’ve already lost the hole. In stroke play, however, you’re still playing, so let’s continue to examine this situation as if you weren’t in a match.
When you walked up to a raised piece of grass caused by someone ahead of you chunking the turf and repaired it, you were in violation of Rule 8.1a (taking an action that improves conditions affecting the stroke). If you’ve got a divot hole on your line of play in the general area of the course, leave it be. Same with loose impediments. If moving one improves your line of play, it’s a penalty.
The penalty for violating Rule 8.1 is either loss of hole—again, it wouldn’t matter in match play since you’ve already lost the hole—or two strokes. You might think that means you get hit with a two-shot penalty for playing from the wrong place and another two for hitting a chip shot after tapping down the raised turf. Four extra strokes? Is that right?
Luckily for you, no. Rule 1.3c covers this and goes on to clarify what happens in general when a player breaches a rule and then breaches another rule before the next stroke, like you did when you hit a chip shot after dropping in the wrong place and then tapping down on the bruised grass.
The Rules of Golf explains that because there was no intervening event between dropping in the wrong place and then tapping down the divot, the player gets only one general penalty of two strokes. To be clear, for the purpose of applying this rule, an “intervening event” means either the completion of a stroke or being aware or becoming aware of a breach of a rule (this includes when a player knows they breached a rule, when the player is told of a breach, or when the player is uncertain whether or not they have breached a rule). If either intervening event happened between the two acts that are penalties, then both penalties apply.
Incidentally, if you hadn’t committed the second penalty and only accidentally played from the wrong place, the procedure for finishing the hole is to continue with the ball that you hit from the incorrect spot. Then add a two-stroke penalty to your score.
It could be a “serious breach” if playing from the wrong place gave you a significant advantage. In which case you’d have to correct the error by going back and playing from the correct position before starting the next hole or you could be disqualified. But in most cases, playing from the wrong place is loss of hole or a two-shot penalty in stroke play.
Golf Tip adapted from golfdigest.comi
Recipe of the Week
Fig, Oat and Yogurt Bars
Ingredients
2 cups rolled oats
1 cup salted almonds, roughly chopped
1 cup pumpkin seeds (pepitas)
2 tablespoons chia seeds
2 tablespoons flax seeds
1/2 cup honey
3 tablespoons almond butter
1 tablespoon pure vanilla extract
1/2 cup coconut oil
Kosher salt
Nonstick cooking spray, for the baking sheet and spatula
1 1/2 cups dried figs (7 ounces), stems trimmed, chopped
1/2 cup full-fat Greek yogurt
Directions
- Preheat the oven to 350 degrees F.
- Toss the oats, almonds and pumpkin seeds on a baking sheet and bake until just beginning to toast, about 10 minutes. Transfer to a large bowl and fold in the chia and flax seeds. Reduce the oven temperature to 300 degrees F.
- Meanwhile, add the honey, almond butter, vanilla extract, 1/4 cup of the coconut oil and 1/2 teaspoon salt to a medium microwave-safe bowl. Microwave in 30-second intervals, stirring in between each, until the ingredients are melted. Stir to combine. Pour the mixture into the bowl with the oat mixture. Spray a rubber spatula with nonstick cooking spray and gently fold until combined. Fold in the figs.
- Spray a baking sheet with nonstick cooking spray, then line with parchment with a 1-inch overhang on 2 of the sides. Transfer the mixture to the prepared baking sheet and use the rubber spatula (or damp hands) to press into an even layer. Bake until light golden brown, 25 to 30 minutes. Let cool at room temperature for 30 minutes then transfer to the refrigerator to cool completely, about 2 hours.
- About 30 minutes before the bar is done chilling, remove the yogurt from the refrigerator to bring to almost room temperature.
- Microwave the remaining 1/4 cup coconut oil in a small microwave-safe bowl until melted, about 30 seconds. Let sit until cool to the touch but still liquid, about 10 minutes.
- Add the yogurt to the coconut oil and whisk until smooth. Spread the yogurt mixture on top of the bar with a small offset spatula. Chill until hardened, about 1 hour.
- Use the parchment to remove the bar from the baking sheet; cut into 16 bars. Store in an airtight container or individually wrapped in parchment paper, at room temperature or in the refrigerator, for up to 1 week.
Recipe Tip adapted from foodnetwork.comii
Travel Tip of the Week
These Are the Cheapest Times to Fly to Japan — Plus Tips for Exploring on a Budget
Spoiler alert: It’s not during cherry blossom season.
There’s no doubt Japan is a tourism hotspot. In the pre-pandemic years, more than 30 million visitors traveled to Japan annually. That number is expected to be exceeded in 2024, with 24 million travelers already having visited Japan between January and August this year.
As it currently stands, the yen-dollar exchange rate is in Americans’ favor, making this a fairly budget-friendly time to visit Japan. But there’s always one big hurdle in the way: flights. If you’re looking to score affordable flights to Japan, you’ll want to time your visit just right. Lucky for you, we spoke to an expert to determine the cheapest times to fly to Japan.
Factors That Impact Flight Prices
“The two biggest factors that impact flight prices are seasonality and traveler demand,” an Expedia spokesperson tells Travel + Leisure. “Traveling during the off-season is often much cheaper and less touristy.”
In Japan, peak tourism season is the spring, specifically for cherry blossom (or sakura) season. The cherry blossoms bloom at different times across the country, but generally speaking, the sakura season runs from late March into May. With millions of visitors coming to Japan for the pink flowers, airfare tends to skyrocket. A secondary peak season is in the late fall, when the temperatures and humidity in Japan finally drop from their summer extremes but the cold winter hasn’t yet started.
It’s also important to consider regional seasonality. The northern island of Hokkaido, for instance, is particularly popular in winter for skiing and hot springs, which creates demand for flights — and thus airfare goes up. On the opposite end of the spectrum, the southern island of Okinawa is a beach destination, so its peak season is in the summer.
Cheapest Times to Fly
“According to Expedia’s booking data, the cheapest time to fly to Japan varies by destination, but generally spring and summer are the most expensive,” the spokesperson shares with T+L. That, of course, matches cherry blossom season and school summer holidays.
Expedia data shows that the cheapest time to fly to the major tourism hubs of Tokyo, Kyoto, and Osaka is January. If you plan on flying to other destinations in Japan, the cheapest times to fly vary; for example, Expedia data shows that the cheapest flights to Kobe are in November, while the cheapest flights to Fukuoka are in September.
“Traveling during these months can yield savings of around 30 percent or more compared to peak prices in the summer,” says the Expedia spokesperson. “Sure, you may need to pack a heavier jacket and rain gear, but it could be worth it to stretch dollars further and see Japan without the crowds.”
Tips for Finding Cheap Flights
Set up flight alerts.
“First, it’s important to get a sense of what the ‘typical’ price is for your destination,” says the Expedia spokesperson. Use a price tracking tool well in advance of your trip to determine a baseline price for your ideal route. That way, you’ll know exactly what constitutes a “good deal” when you see it.
Be flexible.
The more flexible you are with your travel plans, the more likely it is you’ll snag a cheap flight. Japan is an easy country to travel around, thanks to a robust domestic flight and bullet train network, so you don’t necessarily need to fly into your final destination. Just be sure to factor in the cost of domestic transportation.
If you can adjust your travel dates a few days earlier or a few days later, you can often take advantage of cheaper flights. For example, according to Expedia’s 2024 Air Travel Hacks Report, Thursday flights are up 16 percent cheaper than flights on other days.
Consider your booking window.
Booking a last-minute flight is typically very expensive, but booking a flight too early can also be more expensive. Per Expedia, the sweet spot for international flights is less than 60 days out from travel.
Keep checking your flight’s price after you book.
Once you’ve booked your flight, you’re not done — if you set price alerts for your specific flight, you’ll be notified if the price drops. In that case, you can usually get airline credit for the price difference. Of course, credit isn’t the same as a refund, but if you plan on traveling more on that airline in the near future (there’s usually an expiration date of about a year for the credit), you can start adding to your next vacation fund.
Beware of basic economy fares.
“One thing to keep an eye on is whether you’re selecting a basic economy or similar restrictive fare,” says the Expedia spokesperson. Basic economy fares often eliminate perks like carry-on bags and seat selection — if you want these perks, you’ll have to pay extra for them, negating potential savings.
Other Ways to Save Money on Your Trip
Stay in less central locations.
As a general rule when it comes to accommodations, the closer you are to tourist attractions and the city center, the more expensive the stay. It’s often worth staying a bit farther out and using public transportation (which is pretty cheap in Japan) to get where you need to go. Try to avoid taxis, as they’re much more expensive than buses or the subway.
Buy a Japan Rail Pass.
If you plan on traveling between cities by train frequently during your trip, a Japan Rail Pass can be a cost-effective way to get around the country.
Take overnight buses.
This is a double win — overnight buses are one of the cheaper forms of inter-city transportation, and they’ll save you the cost of a hotel for a night.
Visit free attractions.
Japan has many beautiful temples, shrines, parks, gardens, and markets that are free to enter. Plus, simply walking the city streets can be a form of free entertainment in its own right.
Eat at konbini.
Forget Michelin stars. Japanese convenience stores, or konbini, are the best place for food on a budget. At lunchtime, you’ll see many locals lining up in 7-Elevens to grab cheap but good eats, like onigiri, or rice balls.
Travel Tip adapted from travelandleisure.com iii
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iihttps://www.foodnetwork.com/recipes/fig-oat-and-yogurt-bars-12078598
iiihttps://www.travelandleisure.com/cheapest-time-to-fly-to-japan-8734004
