Years ago the National Enquirer would publish in December
predictions for the New Year from prominent psychics. The things they foresaw
were always spectacular.
We could expect things like “A Nazi base will be discovered on the moon” and “Elvis will return and run for President.”
What was brilliant about this editorial decision was that it was extremely difficult to hold those psychics accountable for their accuracy. Even if you saved your Enquirer from last year, how were you going to publicize that none of those predictions came true?
Near the end of each year the financial media do something similar. They contact prominent market analysts and ask them to predict how stock and bond markets will perform in the coming year.
As you might guess, with a third of 2020 nearly gone, their predictions appear to be a little off.
Last November CNBC polled eight strategists from firms like Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and Credit Suisse. Their predictions for the S&P 500 ranged from a mild drop of 3% up to a healthy gain of 10% with the median for all forecasts at just over 7% growth.1
Of course, none of them foresaw the drop in the index as the result of a global pandemic.
In an even more specific prediction, Matt Krantz of Investor.com did a roundup of analyst forecasts for the energy sector. “Don’t pity the poor energy investor too long,” writes Krantz. “Analysts think the S&P 500 energy sector will gush big gains in 2020, making up for a disappointing 2019.”2
This gaze into the crystal ball wasn’t just a little off. It was spectacularly wrong.
But then none of the experts he polled foresaw Russia and Saudi Arabia engaging in a price war.
You might be thinking, “Well, in a normal year they might have been right.” The problem is there’s no such thing as a normal year either in life or the market. The future always brings the unexpected, both good and bad.
If the spread of the virus can be brought under control and people can return to work in the next few weeks, these rosy predictions for 2020 still have a chance to come true. They might even end up being low estimates. There’s simply no way to know with certainty in advance.
But as always it’s best to take any forecast with a grain of salt, keeping your portfolio diverse enough to spread risk broadly to endure whatever the market might do next. Maintain the discipline to stick to your strategy through the turbulent, unknown future. And be prepared to rebalance your strategy back to its original allocation targets, regardless of today’s scary headline.
We can help you come up with a plan that doesn’t depend on lucky guesses, and then help you stick with it when things are in turmoil.
Have a great weekend!
Source: Efficient Advisors
Golf Tip of the Week
Where’s Your Golf GPS Watch?
No, you don’t have to own a golf GPS watch to enjoy a round – but once you get one, you might wonder how you ever managed to play well without it. Wearing a golf GPS watch is almost like having a pro and a caddy at your side for all 18 holes.
How far is it to the pin, and how much carry do you need to get over that ravine? The watch can tell you. How is your putting form today? Check your watch. You’ve never played this course before; would you like a hole-by-hole breakdown? Your watch probably has one (the best-hold data on 30,000 to 40,000 layouts). For about the price of a cheap PC, these timepieces provide a world of information, while keeping score – and most are tough and waterproof. Think about buying one.
Tip adapted from T3.comi
Recipe of the Week
- 2 Tbsp. extra virgin olive oil
- 1¼ lbs. scallops, fresh
- 3 Tbsp. unsalted butter, cubed
- 1½ Tbsp garlic, minced
- Salt and pepper, to taste
- ¼ cup broth or dry sherry
- 2 Tbsp. lemon juice
- ¼ cup parsley, chopped
- Remove side muscle from scallops, if attached.
- Pat dry with paper towels.
- Heat oil over medium-high heat until sizzling.
- Add scallops in batches without overcrowding.
- Season with salt and pepper and cook until lightly browned on each side, about 2 to 3 minutes.
- Transfer seared scallops to plate.
- In the same pan, melt 2 Tbsp. of butter, mixing with browned leftovers from scallops.
- Add garlic and cook for one minute.
- Pour in broth/sherry and simmer for 2 minutes.
- Add remaining butter and lemon juice, then stir.
- Remove pan from heat, return the scallops and gently toss in butter mixture.
- Garnish with parsley and serve over rice, pasta, or steamed vegetables.
Recipe adapted from cafedelites.comii
Health Tip of the Week
Powered by Plants
Plant-based meals have increased in popularity over the years, but for those who might be skeptical about how to meet their daily nutritional needs, especially protein, read on to learn more. But one quick note before you do: this information isn’t a substitute for medical advice. Be sure to consult your health provider and registered dietitian before making alterations to your diet.
Some of the best options for plant-based protein include:
- Soy products. Tofu, tempeh, soy milk, and edamame are all great options, and they’re rich in unsaturated fats, vitamins, and minerals.
- Legumes. Beans, chickpeas, lentils, and peanuts are packed with protein, high in magnesium and other micronutrients, and full of fiber.
- Nuts and seeds. Almonds, pumpkin seeds, chia seeds – just to name a few.
- Some whole grains. Quinoa, amaranth, and teff are all good choices.
- Wheat gluten. If you can tolerate gluten, seitan can be a fantastic substitute for meat.
Now that you have the raw ingredients, look for recipe ideas on sites like Pinterest. You might even discover your next favorite meal.
Tip adapted from MedicalNewsToday.comiii
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i T3.com, April 9, 2020
ii CafeDelites.com, April 9, 2020
iii Medical News Today, April 9, 2020